NBA Playoffs Betting - Finding the Value in Different Markets
With the NBA playoffs now in full swing, we want to help point you in the right direction for spotting the best bets while avoiding the pitfalls that can come with wagering on this exciting point of the season.
AussieBet’s trading expert, Chris Bostrom, has assessed all the latest odds, potential match-ups, and price differentials to try and highlight where the value lies and which markets make more sense to bet on right now. If there is a team that you fancy, would it be better to bet on the individual rounds, or should you invest in the outright markets?
Latest NBA Odds
Here is a list of the current prices for teams to win their respective conference and the outright NBA Championship. All prices with bet365 and correct at the time of writing.
| Team |  | |
|---|---|---|
| Conference Win | Championship Win | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | ||
| Boston Celtics | ||
| Cleveland Cavaliers | ||
| LA Lakers | ||
| Golden State Warriors | ||
| LA Clipper | ||
| New York Knicks | ||
| Minnesota Timberwolves | ||
| Indiana Pacers | ||
| Houston Rockets | ||
| Denver Nuggets | ||
| Milwaukee Bucks | ||
| Detroit Pistons | ||
| Memphis Grizzlies | ||
| Miami Heat | ||
| Orlando Magic |
Is There Any Value in the Outright Market?
With round two of the playoffs, the conference finals, and NBA finals all ahead of us, it sometimes makes sense to not look too far ahead when searching for the best bet.
One thing that was clear from Chris Bostom’s odds assessment was that there really is no value in backing big-price outsiders – given the fact their odds should be much higher than offered – or the main favourites due to the lack of value left in their skinny prices.
Instead, if you are keen on an outright winner bet, look to those mid-range sides and find something you like about them to have a bet. Teams like the Pistons, Pacers, and Bucks may still be under-priced, especially if you can hunt down a top betting site with high odds on them.
The AussieBet trading expert explains: “We have projected series prices for the upcoming rounds, and compared those to the outright betting market.
“What stands out the most is the $1001.00 cap that bookmakers seemingly have aligned on. None of the three teams prices at $1001.00 are anywhere near the true price. And as you might expect, the heavy betting favorites in Thunder and Celtics are poor-value outright bets.
“If you like them to win you could benefit from betting during the individual series in R2, Conference and/or NBA finals.”
Pistons Could Be Shorter
There are a few teams that stand out as potential good value outright winner bets.
The Detroit Pistons have made a remarkable turnaround from last year’s 14-win season, and are playing a tight series against the New York Wildcats. Sorry, the Villanova Knicks.
Cade Cunningham is getting his first taste of the postseason and continues to be productive. At this point, it’s anyone’s series as all three games have featured some late-stage drama with shifting momentum, lead changes, foul calls (or lack thereof).
Either team to go through will have a tall task of facing the Boston Celtics in the next round.
Bostrom added: “A whopping 501.00 for the Pistons to win the NBA title might be tempting. My projection sits closer to 301.00. For the 501.00 to make sense they would have to be an average of 4.5 in the opening series prices for each round. Personally, I prefer the Conference bet for value.
“Although the Pistons will be a significant underdog in a Round 2 match-up vs the Celtics (likely at 5.0 or greater), the Cavaliers will go through a physical challenge in playing either the Pacers (or possibly Bucks) before the Eastern Conference Finals – should they make it.”
Back Pistons to Win Eastern Conference with bet365
The Pistons are also a value bet to win the Eastern Conference should they get past the Knicks.Another Eastern Conference team isn’t getting much love in the outright betting is the Indiana Pacers, with a projected 27.42% overvalue in betting the outright markets vs Series to Series, according to Chris Bostrom’s projection.
Conference Over Outright Betting
Another standout point from his research shows that it could pay not to get carried away with your chosen team. Backing a team to win the series or conference rather than winning outright could be the way to go to find overvalue at this stage.
After looking at prices for a conference win and the future projected price versus the implied odds being given by bookmakers, he was able to find which teams are better to back to win the conference instead of winning outright – with the ability to reinvest for the finals should they get there rather than backing that now.
Those teams were Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, Houston Rockets, and Cleveland Cavaliers.
Back Thunder to win the Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder have a great chance of Conference success this season and that is a better value bet than a outright wager at this stage.Find Value in Series Success
On the flip side, the LA Clippers have relatively short odds in the outright markets. If you like them to win you would likely benefit from betting on the individual series, as they have a tough road to travel (should they progress) in a R2 match-up vs Oklahoma City followed by either ex-champions/MVPs or hungry young teams in the conference finals.
