Arsenal The Value Bet for Champions League Glory, According to Odds Expert
With the Champions League now heading into the quarter-final stage, we have worked to highlight the value bet in this year’s outright winner market.
AussieBet’s trading expert, Chris Bostrom, has assessed all the latest prices and potential tournament match-ups to find his value pick. By pricing up potential semi-final and final match-ups ahead of time, he has been able to uncover which team he believes the bookies have overpriced as we head into this crucial phase of the competition.
The data was clear when it came to which team should be shorter in both the ‘to qualify for the final’ and ‘outright winner’ markets. That was Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, who face Real Madrid in the quarter-finals as they look to win their first Champions League title.
Champions League Outright Winner Odds
Barcelona are the current favourites to win the 2024/2025 Champions League. They face outsiders Borussia Dortmund after overcoming a spirited Benfica in the Last 16.
Liverpool-conquerors PSG and all-time leading Champions League winners Real Madrid make up a competitive top three in the market with the best Australian betting sites. Take a look at the latest prices with bet365 as well as our predicted odds edge to identify value.
| Team |  | Predicted Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | -6.06% | |
| Paris SG | -8.02% | |
| Real Madrid | -8.26% | |
| Bayern Munich | -3.85% | |
| Arsenal | +4.55% | |
| Inter Milan | -0.68% | |
| Aston Villa | -0.88% | |
| Borussia Dortmund | -1.46% |
Why Are Arsenal The Value Bet?
Here we explain what went into making the odds sheet Chris Bostrom put together and what the numbers tell us about this season’s potential Champions League winner bets.
He put together a data sheet where he assessed the current quarter-final odds, and then priced up potential semi-final and final permutations. Based on his own predicted odds for future clashes, it shows that Arsenal are too short by 6.28% to reach the final and 4.55% to be crowned champions – making them the value play at this stage of the tournament
The AussieBet trading expert, said: “The perceived value on Arsenal depends on accuracy in the price projection. It’s not a model that states that there is value on any sides, but relative to the pricing of the correlated markets.
“If the projections are correct the value is on Arsenal to reach the final, and to win it. If the projections are flawed then there could possibly be value in betting on Real Madrid in the semi-final to advance and the final to lift the trophy. You need to ask if their price be bigger than 1.5 to advance and 1.57 to lift the trophy.”
On the pitch, Arsenal’s chances of a surprise Champions League success have been boosted by the return from injury of Bukaya Saka, who will give them some added attacking threat against Los Blancos and deeper into the tournament should they progress.
Recent injuries to Gabriel and Jurrien Timber will need to be assessed but Premier League victories over Chelsea and Fulham will give them confidence, as will the goalscoring form of stand-in striker Mikel Merino.
The central midfielder has been deployed as a makeshift striker in recent weeks but has stepped up to the challenge with goals in his last two outings. Merino is also no stranger to Madrid due to his time at Real Sociedad and netted twice in nine appearances against them before his move to the Gunners.
The team showing the worst value in the outright winner market are Real Madrid given the low odds expected should they make it through. They showed a -7.91% edge to make the final and a -8.26% edge to go on and win it outright.
They were closely followed by Paris Saint-Germain with a -9.83% edge to make the final and a -8.02% edge for the win. They take on Aston Villa and record-breaking Europa League-winning boss Unai Emery in their quarter-final.
Favourites Barcelona showed a -12.18% edge to make the final and a -6.06% edge to go on and win it outright. Their quarter-final opponents Dortmund are among this season’s highest scorers in the competition. They have netted 28 times, just four shy of Barca with the most. Borussia have, however, kept more clean sheets, made more tackles, and had more ball recoveries than the Catalonian giants.
Can Arsenal Overcome Real Madrid?
For Arsenal’s value price to become even more of a great bet at this stage of the tournament, they will have to overcome Real Madrid over two legs to reach the Champions League semi-final.
Madrid haven’t hit the same heights as last season and currently sit second in La Liga behind rivals Barcelona. Clean sheets have been hard to come by and that could be key to how Arsenal find a way to the semi-finals.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side have failed to stop the opposition from scoring in their last seven matches. If Arsenal can be typically resolute at the back then chances can come their way, especially on the break through Saka and Gabriel Martinelli.
Emirates Stadium, London
Chris Bostrom added: “Since we are looking at late stages of the UEFA Champions League books are quite competitive with their margins. Lower margins and slight differences in opinions/positions means some prices will stand out.
“When placing your bets you should stick to a staking system in order to minimise fluctuation, and to grind out a steady profit.”
